By Judith Bellaiche.
The effects of demographic change on the economy are underestimated. Going forward, growth plans will need to be adapted to the realities of demographics. In the position paper, Swico makes suggestions on how the challenges can be overcome.
The ratio of the working population to the total population is falling in Switzerland. The low fertility rate of 1.4 has been offset in recent decades by recruiting foreign skilled workers. However, with the retirement of the baby boomer generation, this will no longer be possible to the same extent – because the EU countries are also fighting for every workforce in view of an aging population. The specific effects of demographic developments on economic performance, but also on the personnel planning of individual companies, are underestimated. In the future, growth plans will have to be based on the realities of demographics.
The phenomenon also affects EU countries
Four out of five immigrants come from EU/EFTA countries. And their employment rate is extraordinarily high at 83%. Switzerland currently relies on this regular influx of workers from abroad. But the demographic change also affects our European neighbors: by 2040, the working-age population will decline by 14% in Germany, by 17% in Portugal and even by 18% in Italy. Then this reliable source of labor is likely to dry up.
The digital industry is particularly affected by this development. Not only is it highly dependent on qualified specialists from abroad, but it is also at the epicenter of dynamic structural change: as a so-called transversal technology, it serves all sectors of the economy and administration with digitalization services and products. The ICT industry alone will not be able to meet the high demand for skilled workers for the entire economy on its own.
This circumstance will also have an impact on growth plans at the operational level, but this realization has not yet become established in companies. The medium and long-term personnel requirements of a company are usually measured according to its growth plans. However, the dampening effect of the labor market on company growth will become foreseeable in the future.
Artificial intelligence as a bridge
The industry’s concern relates to maintaining prosperity and Switzerland’s innovative strength. There is an urgent need to raise awareness among economic actors and politicians about the effects of demographic change. Swico takes up the topic with a position paper and lists a number of demands for strategically addressing demographic change. This includes not only the long-overdue mobilization of domestic workforce potential, but also maintaining and strengthening Switzerland’s competitiveness as a place to work. In addition, increases in productivity and efficiency thanks to new technologies should be recognized and promoted as an opportunity. For example, artificial intelligence can play an interesting role in alleviating the labor shortage.
Download Paper (in German)
https://www.swico.ch/media/filer_public/23/fa/23faa741-f955-4b18-8ee5-5aedc31ce505/positionspapier_demographie_031023.pdf
Source: Swico, Oct 3, 2023
Swico is the trade association for the ICT and online industry and represents the interests of established companies and start-ups in politics, business and society.
https://www.swico.ch/
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